Prediksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2020

Pandemi Virus Corona atau Covid-19 sudah berimbas ke banyak bidang di Indonesia terutama pada sektor ekonomi. Akibatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tadinya diprediksi akan meroket justru nyungsep. Pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional menyentuh level terburuk dalam dua dekade terakhir. Pada kuartal kedua 2020, angkanya merosot hingga minus 5,32%. Seolah masalah belum cukup sampai disitu, manajemen penanganan Covid 19 malah memperlihatkan banyaknya masalah di birokrasi yang sebelumnya sudah tidak tertangani dengan baik hingga berimbas pada tingginya hutang LN.

Wajar bila banyak pihak menilai, saat ini negara memang punya seorang presiden tapi belum tentu memiliki pemimpin. Ban Bland lewat tulisannya dalam buku "Man of Contradictions..." buruknya manajemen pemerintahan saat ini sudah terjadi jauh sebelum virus Covid-19 jadi pandemi wabah.

Kembali pada sikon perekonomian Indonesia yang mulai memasuki masa sulit, sebaiknya pemerintah harus mulai melakukan evaluasi sebab investasi dikejar tetapi hutang tak terbayar justru makin besar. Jargon revolusi mental dan kerja nyata seharusnya sesuai dengan implementasinya, jangan malah seperti sekarang program Kemenag kontra dengan MUI, Kemenkes kontra dengan IDI, hingga Kemendikbud kontra pula dengan PGRI, bahkan Kominfo bertanya pada stafnya yang siapa yang gaji kamu lalu malah akrab dengan para buzzer sosial media yang anggarannya era ini luar binasa.

Pemerintah jelas berbeda dengan perusahaan yang siap dengan anggaran untuk belanja iklan sebab tujuannya adalah mencari laba/ keuntungan, sebaliknya pemerintah adalah lembaga negara yang anggarannya (baca; uang rakyat) bersifat pengabdian untuk masyarakat dan warga negaranya. Jadi bila slogan/ semboyan HUT RI Ke 70 "Ayo Kerja", HUT RI ke 71 "Indonesia Kerja Nyata", HUT RI ke 72 "Indonesia Kerja Bersama", HUT RI ke 73 "Kerja Kita Prestasi Bangsa", HUT RI ke 74 "Menuju Indonesia Unggul", HUT RI ke 75 "Indonesia Maju", maka sudah seharusnya bila hal itu cermin dari upaya dan tindakan yang berkelanjutan. Bukan malah seperti sekarang yang serba kontradiktif, yakin ekonomi bakal meroket ternyata malah nyungsep.

Global Recession

Ini sedikit kilasan sejarah mengenai resesi global. Pemahaman yang sedikit ini setidaknya diharapkan dapat membantu kita untuk menyesuaikan diri dengan perubahan cepat yang terjadi dan fluktuasi yang begitu mudah mengalami perubahan.

This is the economic reality that will come crashing down around us in the next 2-6 years.

I'm just curious, do you also believe in the population bomb? Also, note that "peak oil" was has supposedly been reached in the 50's 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. I'm not saying that there are not significant natural resource concerns, there certainly are, but I do have to wonder where the certainty in your time frame comes from.

Peak oil in the US was in fact reached in the 70's. I don't recall anyone claiming it would hit world-wide until well into the middle of the 21st century. I have been reading that since the early 90's when I was in college.

I could argue that we are experiencing peak right now, but I am prudent enough to concede that many economic factors can be responsible for this, and can even reverse a peak over a few decades.

Peak oil (and peak copper, peak salmon, you name it) is but one of several self-limiting economic realities facing the world today. More immediate, however, is the necessity we have created for broad and unprecedented economic growth if we are recover from the debt incurred over the past 10 years. Or even the past 2 years, given the bail-out of hopelessly failed banking institutions. We are counting on the taxpayer to recover this wealth. We have said, "oops! It wasn't in CDO's, nope, nothing there."

Second, as the baby-boomers go into retirement, we don't have a large enough replacement population to support them, let alone liquidate their vast financial and real estate assets. They just watched at least a third of their wealth get wiped out.

So I think those two factors, and maybe some limitations on growth of energy and natural resources, will be the next big "crises" coincidental with this downturn.

What will turn bad to worse, however, is the fact that there is ZERO political will (aside from Ron Paul) to do something about our economic models and consumption habits.

006andahalf: Crown_of_Shoes: abnormalia: What if our economy is up right now, and the past spikes were just flukes? What if we're at the peak and getting ready for the real plunge?

This is the economic reality that will come crashing down around us in the next 2-6 years.

I'm just curious, do you also believe in the population bomb? Also, note that "peak oil" was has supposedly been reached in the 50's 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. I'm not saying that there are not significant natural resource concerns, there certainly are, but I do have to wonder where the certainty in your time frame comes from.

Don't bother - my time at fark has taught me quite a few things about about economic and political threads:

1) There are those that never worry and their political side is never wrong...
2) There are those that always worry and the other political side is never right...
3) Then there are those that wallow in the thought of misery like a pig in slop - the world is always a day away from total chaos and anarchy to them - and they will happily tell you why.

In all groups there are people who troll as if they were a part of these groups.

Then there are those who actually believe it but their real life behavior belies that fact. I doubt there are more than a handful of farkers posting from some mountain cave stocked with ammo and canned food, overlooking a private valley planted with vegetables, with a waterwheel and windmill providing limited but free electical power.